Scottish Independence... What are your thoughts?

[MPS16]

The UK can only barely control its borders now ....The EU is nothing if not flexible when it comes to setting the rules.....

A} The UK can not control its borders because we the people currently signed up to the Common Market thats one of the reasons that I support UKIP.

B) My choice of word would not be "flexible"

but devious

underhand, underhanded, deceitful, dishonest, dishonourable, disreputable, unethical, unprincipled, immoral, unscrupulous, fraudulent, cheating, dubious, dirty, unfair, treacherous, duplicitous, double-dealing, Janus-faced, below the belt, two-timing, two-faced, unsporting, unsportsmanlike;

[PetBazaar]

B) My choice of word would not be "flexible"

but devious

That puts them in the same boat as pretty much every UK political party... including UKIP.

[HobbyHabitat]

That puts them in the same boat as pretty much every UK political party... including UKIP.

I take it that includes the snp?

[astral276]

So on the assumption that rUK would prefer us not to be a Schengen member, presumably negotiations to remain in the CTA will be relatively painless.

You cannot work on assumptions with something that will impact on your future and generations to come. If something is not within the exclusive gift of the new Scottish government then you have to allow for all scenarios. The fact that the SNP says something will happen and expects there to be a flash of smoke and light and it will come to pass is, frankly, stupid.

You need to know what you are signing up to, the things you will be able to control, and those you have no control over. In the case of the latter you need to have a full understanding of the ramifications should things not go as you desire. You need to consider both the best and worst case scenarios and be willing to accept them both.

Quite an extensive consideration of the issues here: https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...itizenship.pdf - though, of course, it could all be bluff, bluster, and bullying.

[PetBazaar]

I take it that includes the snp?

Almost certainly yes.

I'm inclined to believe that all political parties tell you what you want to hear in the hope that you'll continue to vote for them. Working for the good of the country comes second.

You cannot work on assumptions with something that will impact on your future and generations to come. If something is not within the exclusive gift of the new Scottish government then you have to allow for all scenarios. The fact that the SNP says something will happen and expects there to be a flash of smoke and light and it will come to pass is, frankly, stupid.

You need to know what you are signing up to, the things you will be able to control, and those you have no control over. In the case of the latter you need to have a full understanding of the ramifications should things not go as you desire. You need to consider both the best and worst case scenarios and be willing to accept them both.

Quite an extensive consideration of the issues here: https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...itizenship.pdf - though, of course, it could all be bluff, bluster, and bullying.

The point is though that the outcome will lie somewhere within a range of options, but pragmatism will dictate the outcome of the negotiations. My belief is that a common sense approach will see a lot of the issues disappear or at least be lessened.

Taking the CTA vs Schengen point as an example. The Scottish Government position is a preference for CTA. Now, the UK Government position is that in order to join the CTA post independence, Scotland would have to negotiate an opt out from Schengen. So far so good. Except that the UK government continually tells us that an independent Scotland will also no longer be part of the EU. Therefore no Schengen to opt out of. Presumably then the CTA negotiations will be reasonably straight forward.

On the other side of the coin, it took 6 years for Greenland to negotiate its exit from the EU. Presumably Scotland's exit would take a similar amount of time. Surely no one in their right mind actually believes that the EU will spend 6 years throwing Scotland out, only to accept their application to join the very next day.

So yes, it is all very much unknown, and there is no precedent for this in the EU. Compromise and fudging the rules, I suspect, will be very much the order of the day.

And if we vote "No" is there any less uncertainty. How would "No" plus an EU In/Out referendum produce more certainty than voting "Yes"?

Don't assume that every "Yes" voter takes Alex Salmond's word as gospel. The hey presto, flash of smoke and light approach is one for the diehards only.

[tonyreddevil]

whats the latest polls

[PetBazaar]

whats the latest polls

Funny you should ask that. The latest Ipsos/MORI poll was released today. Yes 36%, No 54%, Undecided 13%. That's Yes up 4% and No down 3% since their last poll in March. Margin of error +/- 3%

All polls have shown a narrowing of the No lead, with Panelbase showing the narrowest lead at 47% - 40% again +/- 3%

Gut feeling is that No will hold on and win it on the day. My other gut feeling is that The Sun is holding a finger up to the wind and considering supporting Yes.

[tonyreddevil]

Funny you should ask that. The latest Ipsos/MORI poll was released today. Yes 36%, No 54%, Undecided 13%. That's Yes up 4% and No down 3% since their last poll in March. Margin of error +/- 3%

All polls have shown a narrowing of the No lead, with Panelbase showing the narrowest lead at 47% - 40% again +/- 3%

Gut feeling is that No will hold on and win it on the day.

i think that as well

[PetBazaar]

I also think that it will be very bad for Scotland if that happens.

[astral276]

I also think that it will be very bad for Scotland if that happens.

Do you mean if the vote is close or if it is a no vote?

I note that you started this thread seemingly in the NO camp, you now seem to have moved to the YES camp.