Re: Scottish Independence... What are your thoughts?
Originally Posted by peterpunto08
The end of the end for this thread must be in sight. To be honest, I'm surprised it lasted as long as it has.
In the immediate day or two after the referendum, despite always thinking that No would win, I sort of felt that it may have been the beginning of the end for the Independence movement too. Almost two weeks down the line, I now think that it may in actual fact be the end of the beginning.
If anyone is interested now that it's dropped off of the UK news radar.
Oil, rather than running out in 20 years, may now last 120 years.
The NHS which was absolutely safe is now in grave danger.
£2 billion to build a functioning country was obscene, £2 billion to bomb a barely functioning country is reasonable.
The Scottish block grant which was under no threat at all is now under threat.
The Barnett formula which no one was going to change now can't survive in its current form.
Gordon Brown (Lab) promised that legislation would be passed by May. Lord Forsyth (Con) stated that the chances of getting legislation started, never mind passed by May are "slim".
A week certainly is a long time in politics.
However, on the plus side. It would appear, much to everyone's surprise, that the whole Independence thing hasn't gone away since losing the vote and what David Cameron has declared to be the "settled will of the Scottish people" very clearly isn't. It's hard to even say for certain that it's the settled will of the "No" voters with a recent poll suggesting that around 25% of "No" voters made their choice based on Gordon Brown's last minute interventions and "The Vow" by the three leaders.
Whether the Independence movement keeps up any momentum is also another thing that's open to question. I can't help but feel that it's got to peter out eventually, but it should have enough strength to continue until at least the 2015 General election. Whether it lasts until the 2016 Scottish Elections only time will tell. The No side, in grassroots campaigning terms, (what little grassroots it had) has already disengaged with the process it seems, and there are almost no balanced debates or discussions any more on social media. Meanwhile the SNP are now approaching 70,000 members, and the Scottish Greens 7000. I understand too that the Scottish Socialists are gaining members. In the SNP's case that's (more than) doubled since the referendum making them the third biggest party in the UK by membership. Labour have promised to learn from the referendum, but their rhetoric since has suggested that they've learned nothing and have no intention of starting now.
An interesting point to note on the Labour situation is that every constituency in Glasgow voted Yes. So did North Lanarkshire, and West Dunbartonshire. All three of them previously rock solid Labour areas. The areas with the smallest No majorities including: Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, and Falkirk are also strong Labour areas. There's been a sense that people are turning their backs on Labour in Scotland since the 2007 Scottish Elections (although it's probaly fairer to say that Labour turned their backs on their supporters) and it's possible that this feeling may filter through to the UK General election this time.
The reason for this is that there now seems to be a campaign brewing to oust Labour from Scotland at the next elections. I doubt it will happen but it will be interesting to see how successful it is. One set of results is suggesting that the SNP may hold 31 (+25) seats at the next general election and the Conservatives 3 (+2). Further gains for the SNP are possible if the Glasgow constituencies turn their back on Labour too. Although it doesn't appear to have been factored into the polling, it's possible that Labour's vote in Glasgow (and the Clydeside area) could be split between Labour and a reborn Scottish Socialist party. One bonus of the Tories having three seats is that we could finally see the end of the panda joke. Although if Tian Tian gets pregnant next year I'm sure we can expect a whole new batch of them.
In some ways, specifically relating to the constitutional question, I'd now be more in favour of a Conservative government than a labour one. Somewhat perversely, the Conservatives actually appear to be offering more than Labour, perhaps due to Labour's need to keep their Scottish MPs in power and not have them disappear as part of any DevoMax/Federal set up. Whether they manage to cling on is another story entirely.
That all said... If I were a betting man, I'd consider putting money on Alistair Darling to lose his seat in May.
Login to Your Account
Reply With Quote
