Scottish Independence... What are your thoughts?

[squern]

This is my contribution to the 1000 posts:

"They've always regarded Scotland as a bit of a fiefdom, they feel that they have a right to be in power here and it seems to be slowly slipping away."

I think the same applies to the North of England, and to Wales - traditional Labour territory. They may get a rude awakening by UKIP in the North, but I don't know what will replace them in Wales.

The Labour Party seems glued to the industrial 1970s, to the politics of envy, and to the "them and us" mentality. They don't seem to realise that time has passed, people and their aspirations have changed.

And they still have the spectre of an un-jailed war criminal on their hands.

[PetBazaar]

Hmmmm, I do believe that the opening shots of Independence Referendum 2 have just been fired.

[MPS16]

Hmmmm, I do believe that the opening shots of Independence Referendum 2 have just been fired.

Some details or a link please.

As you know I am a beliver in English independance.

[PetBazaar]

Some details or a link please.

As you know I am a beliver in English independance.

And if everyone votes the right way, you might get it.

It seems that Nicola Sturgeon, has said that any of the 4 nations should have the power of veto over an EU withdrawal - see here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29805045

So if an Exit vote is returned in the UK as a whole, it can only be carried if all four nations of the UK vote for an Exit, any one potentially being able to veto it.

So far, so what?

Well the implication of this one is as follows...

Almost certainly Labour, LibDim and Conservative would love to implement this, as it more or less guarantees a "No" vote. However, they'll never get away with implementing it as it seems certain that the majority (English) voters wouldn't stand for it - and quite right too. As a result, they'll have to be seen to be strongly objecting.

So after a vote, England (with the vast majority of the population) votes "Out", Scotland (and maybe others) vote "In". Suddenly the Independence argument has just changed overnight (remember that a No vote in IndyRef 1, was the only way to guarantee EU membership). Scotland getting taken out of the EU "against its will" (after voting to remain in it) would be regarded as reason enough for IndyRef 2 to be back on the cards, and it almost certainly wouldn't have a 3 year campaign (possibly more like 3 months).

This time round it would be starting from 45% support, rather than 28%. It would be almost impossible to argue "better together", whilst simultaneously arguing "better apart" in an EU context. And this time around, banks, businesses and newspapers which opposed independence would find themselves on the opposite side, desperate to remain in the EU by any means possible. It's also possible that factories, headquarters and jobs would get ready to flood north to avoid the catastrophic consequences of an exit.

As others have said... Interesting times.


* assumptions on voting patterns are based on recent polls
** assumptions on businesses are based on recent news stories of financial business looking at moving from London to Dublin in the event of an "exit" vote.

[MPS16]

....... It's also possible that factories, headquarters and jobs would get ready to flood north to avoid the catastrophic consequences of an exit......

No its the other way around.

Its the European Union That is the catastrophe.

[tony41]

No its the other way around.

Its the European Union That is the catastrophe.

Many businesses want the UK to stay in the EU. So presumably some of these may consider moving into Scotland.
I am inclined towards membership of the EU. Who would want to be on the same side as Rupert Murdoch and the Daily Mail?

[peterpunto08]

PetBazaar should have the 1000th post on this thread !

If not available then I vote the baton goes to WestLondonCarParts

Both have provided many interesting and well constructed posts.

Independence....it gotta be a case of when & not if.

[PetBazaar]

No its the other way around.

Its the European Union That is the catastrophe.

I've got no strong opinion on the EU one way or the other, but it would appear that the financial services industry disagrees.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b555ed6-2...#axzz3HYEyDV9u (behind a paywall or survey) http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news...013398.article (for a similar free story)

Which is a bit of a problem when you build the economy around financial services.

It now seems that the second shots in IndyRef 2 have been fired with David Cameron today confirming that there will be a UK vote and that will be final. Add that to the following poll results, and you can see where we're heading...

Should the UK leave the European Union?
England: Yes 59.70% No 40.30% (21259 people polled)
NI: Yes 59.71% No 40.29% (407 people polled)
Wales: Yes 55.73% No 44.27% (1179 people polled)
Scotland: Yes 40.32% No 59.68% (2133 people polled)


Maybe tonyreddevil should get #1000 as it was a chance comment on his politics thread that prompted me to start this one.

[peterpunto08]

If UK as a whole leaves EU (and I'd like to see that happen as it's changed dramatically from when I voted to join many years ago) then WHEN Scotland becomes independent I think Scotland will be welcomed back into EU with open arms.

[suesjools]

I've got no strong opinion on the EU one way or the other, but it would appear that the financial services industry disagrees.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b555ed6-2...#axzz3HYEyDV9u (behind a paywall or survey) http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/news...013398.article (for a similar free story)

Which is a bit of a problem when you build the economy around financial services.

It now seems that the second shots in IndyRef 2 have been fired with David Cameron today confirming that there will be a UK vote and that will be final. Add that to the following poll results, and you can see where we're heading...

Should the UK leave the European Union?
England: Yes 59.70% No 40.30% (21259 people polled)
NI: Yes 59.71% No 40.29% (407 people polled)
Wales: Yes 55.73% No 44.27% (1179 people polled)
Scotland: Yes 40.32% No 59.68% (2133 people polled)


Maybe tonyreddevil should get #1000 as it was a chance comment on his politics thread that prompted me to start this one.

Interesting poll indeed. I wonder how they select those who are polled, is it random or not? I'm also curious why it's only Scotland that doesn't want to leave the EU (at least according to the poll).

Best wishes for many sales to all,